Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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