Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230759
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WITH AN ISOLATED UPPER 30S STARTING TO SHOW UP IN POCKETS OF
SE IL. SOME MID/HIGH DECK CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE TEMP
FALL FOR NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE EFFECTIVE FOR
FROST POTENTIAL THRU 8 AM. WE`LL LEAVE AS IS...PER COLLAB EFFORTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DIP INTO UPPER 30S AGAIN...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH...SO WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A 2ND PERIOD FROST ADVISORY AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT (OR NOT).

MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED INCOMING POPS WILL
EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY AND SPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
MISSOURI...AND WE START TO WARM SECTOR.

HIGH POP AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY BUT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEE SPC
SLGT RISK SVR FOR SAT-SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BEYOND THIS JUNCTURE IS WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. IT ALSO OPENS UP THE
UPPER LOW AND TRACKS IT DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OVER OUR AREA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING OUR REGION DRY THROUGH ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

APPARENTLY THE SUPERBLEND MODEL IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POP GRIDS
EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER THE REGION...BUT MIXING
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AT KEVV AND
KOWB DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KCGI AND KPAH...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND VFR
CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>091.

MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100.

IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ014-015-018-
     019.

&&

$$


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