Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280000
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
700 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. GFS, ECMWF AND NAM ALL SHOW A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT QPF
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE OUTLIER MOVING THE
LOW FASTER AND DUE EAST. BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE PREVIOUS
3 MODELS, INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY ON
WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES
OUT...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A NOTICEABLE WARM UP...WITH
LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY...WHEN A
COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DROP ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. SOME LIGHT QPF IS
DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ACROSS SW INDIANA AND THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL NEAR THIS UPPER LOW
...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDINESS PREVAILS ALL DAY. FORECAST TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPED A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHERE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MISSOURI.
ABUNDANT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE AND RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD
ENABLE TEMPS TO REACH 70 IN MANY AREAS...DESPITE WEAK NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO COVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RAISE 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 10 TO 12C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A
KCGI TO MADISONVILLE LINE. THE TRAILING END OF A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE FOR
ANY PRECIP.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK A LITTLE MORE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL A COLD FRONT AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP MONDAY
MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR CONTINUED SMALL POPS IN SW INDIANA AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW CU AT 5000FT ARE POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB
AFTER 14Z TMRW. N/NE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5-8 KTS
AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 14Z TMRW WITH SOME GUSTS
UP NEAR 15KTS AT KPAH/KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SP


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