Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301745
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXISTS TODAY...MAINLY FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. MOST PCPN WILL BE TO OUR EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS TROFFING IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK TELECONNECTED RIDGING
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MINOR/GRADUAL WARMING TREND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOING FROM 60S/40S TO 70S/50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL SET UP A BUFFER OVER THE PAH
FA...AS HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR NORTH AND A LONG WAVE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOOT PIECES OF ENERGY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
FA. SMALL PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
COUNTIES...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.
CHANCES WILL BE PASSING/GLANCING...AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE WEST...AND RIDGING OVER THE
EAST...WITH OUR FA STUCK IN BETWEEN BUT COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES...WITHS
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 80/AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM KEVV TO KMDH AT 17Z. A LINE OF
DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE KCGI/KPAH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

THE CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY AND/OR MOVE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS MISSOURI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DH
AVIATION...MY


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