Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING NORTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY
BY THIS EVENING...AND IT MAY CONTINUE TO FORCE SOME CONVECTION
AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE PENNYRILE.
THESE EVENTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL QUITE
UNLIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRIDAY WILL THE BE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER
70S. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S WHERE SUNSHINE IS
MORE PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
GENERATES RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT PIVOTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVOLVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PEAK IN
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY LAST INTO TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW FOCUSES PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL START OFF AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING
INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE WITHOUT MUCH WIND OR INSOLATION TO STIR THINGS UP.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KOWB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE AN HOUR OR SO
OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LEAVING BEHIND A MID-LEVEL CEILING. FIGURE IFR
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY RE-DEVELOP AT KOWB LATE THIS MORNING.
PLANNING ON CEILINGS CLIMBING TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR OR LOWER FOG
AND/OR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS


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