Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211725
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

UDPATED FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A PASSING WAVE IN THE MEAN BROAD CYCLONE`S TROF WILL ALLOW
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ASSOCIATED POPS TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD
ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. THE
WAVE/BOUNDARY MAKES PASSAGE BY TMRW...SO POPS WILL END WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE SURFACE. SOME DIRTY OVERRUN OF THE HIGH
FROM THE SOUTH MAY WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE POP REAPPEARANCE THERE
WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE WE`LL CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM MAINLY
DRY/UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL NWLYS KEEP THE
COOLISH AIRMASS REINFORCED WITH 60S/40S STAYING THE RULE...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FARTHEST NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE UPPER
30S/UPPER 50S ON THE COLDEST DAY/AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSAGE...IE
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ECMWF OR THE CANADIAN.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  WENT WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PAH FA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.  BY SATURDAY, ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, THOUGH THE CANADIAN IS A BIT FASTER TAKING THE LOW
ACROSS OUR REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY AROUND 00Z SUNDAY.
BASED ON BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS, OVERALL THIS KEEPS PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY, WITH
SOME LINGERING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVER OUR AREA FOR
SUNDAY, KEEPING US DRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  ECMWF AND THE
CANADIAN SHOW AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF.  GFS IS A SLOWER AND DRIER
OUTLIER.  ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER TROF ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, AND PRODUCES FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  THIS IS
SIMILAR TIMING TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN, BUT THE LATEST RUN IS A MUCH
STRONGER TROF AND MUCH MORE ASSOCIATED PRECIP.  GFS LATEST RUN IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND PRODUCES VERY LITTLE
PRECIP.  JUST WENT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS LINE UP A LITTLE
BETTER.

FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND ON MONDAY DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER/PRECIP, AND
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THEY WILL CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDING AFTER 00-02Z.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND
LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE
KCGI/KPAH AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED...I.E. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FLY AROUND...SO OPTED FOR JUST A VCTS. WILL UPGRADE TO
A TEMPO GROUP IF STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY LOWER
CIGS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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