Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3

000
FGUS73 KPAH 051745
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-191200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana,
southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is average or normal for this time of year. Minor
flooding is expected due to rain and snow melt. Flooding in this
region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river
flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in
flooding in this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...On March 4, heavy rain, with
totals of 2-3 inches, melted most of the President`s Day snow. Heavy
snows fell on the backside of this storm system. Four to 8 inches of
snow fell northwest of a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to
McLeansboro, Illinois to Winslow, Indiana. Southeast of this line, up
to 18 inches of snow fell with the most snow recorded along a swath
from Mayfield to Madisonville, Kentucky.

Soil moisture is above normal with the recent snow melt and heavy
rain. Frost depths are 1 inch or less.

For the winter, most locations have been colder and drier. For the
period December through February the region was up to 4 degrees below
normal and precipitation was up to 2 inches below normal. Paducah,
Kentucky recorded the second coldest February on record. With recent
rains and snow melt, stream flows are running near or above normal
for this time of year.


...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/2/2015 - 5/31/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  29   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   50.0   55.0 :  49   <5    7   <5   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  81   <5    9   <5   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  89   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   45.0   49.0 :  40   <5    8   <5   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  91   <5   39   <5    6   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   50.0   60.0 :  85   <5    8   <5   <5   <5
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  82   <5   23   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  48   <5   32   <5    7   <5
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  90   <5   41   <5   21   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  66   <5   37   <5   19   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   22.0 :  57   <5   40   <5   22   <5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  44   <5   36   <5   23   <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  33   33  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   25.0   34.0 :  33   35   10    7   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  60   64   24   29    9    7

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/2/2015 - 5/31/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Evansville           30.6   34.6   37.9   40.3   42.4   44.1   46.0
Golconda             34.3   36.1   37.8   40.0   42.6   47.4   52.3
Mount Vernon         29.7   33.2   36.5   39.0   41.5   44.5   47.4
Newburgh Dam         32.6   37.9   41.6   43.2   44.3   46.4   48.3
Owensboro            29.5   34.0   37.1   39.3   41.1   44.4   46.4
Shawneetown          30.5   33.9   37.8   41.4   45.2   49.4   53.9
J.T. Myers Dam       32.7   36.2   39.1   42.1   44.8   48.4   52.8
:Wabash River
New Harmony          11.2   13.6   16.4   18.1   19.9   20.9   21.8
:Green River
Calhoun              17.2   17.6   18.4   22.7   27.3   31.3   32.8
Paradise            379.4  380.0  380.7  384.7  388.6  394.7  397.6
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                18.5   20.3   25.5   29.9   34.2   36.3   37.5
:Patoka River
Princeton            10.7   13.8   15.5   19.0   21.5   24.8   24.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            7.7    8.7   10.5   13.6   19.8   21.8   24.1
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          8.5    8.9    9.6    9.6    9.7    9.7    9.8
:Current River
Doniphan              2.1    2.1    2.9    3.6    4.7    7.0    8.5
Van Buren             4.7    4.7    5.3    5.8    6.7    8.9    9.9
:St. Francis River
Fisk                  8.9    8.9    9.2    9.6   10.3   11.5   13.8
Patterson            14.3   14.3   14.3   14.7   15.3   16.4   20.0
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            13.6   16.1   17.4   18.5   20.9   25.3   32.2
Murphysboro          16.6   16.9   19.9   23.0   28.4   35.7   38.0

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/2/2015 - 5/31/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             8.3    7.9    7.1    6.1    5.3    4.7    4.5
Murphysboro          11.5    9.7    8.1    6.0    5.1    4.8    4.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...

Cold and dry weather will settle in for a few days before a warming
trend starts that will take us into mid-March. This warming should
melt the ice and snow within the next week. Though not all sites will
go above flood stage, this will cause a significant rise on the
region`s rivers.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 12 through 18 calls for above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are in the middle and upper 40s and
rainfall during this time is near one inch.

The outlooks for March is for below normal temperatures and normal
rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2
inches. The seasonal outlook for March through May calls for normal
temperatures and precipitation.

...Additional Information...

This is the last of two Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks for
the season. If warranted, another outlook may be issued later in
March. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.


$$

ML






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.