Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD AND WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE SRN VA/NC COAST...EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. SFC
FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED ACRS NRN VA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING OFF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA. FLOW
ALOFT IS RATHER MINIMAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS WE RESIDE IN
WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA...A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

FOR THIS AFTN...FRONT TO NORTH IS ALREADY RATHER DIFFUSE AND
LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. MODELS DO HOWEVER SHOW SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...FAIRLY SIMILAR IN LOCATION TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST
EVENING FAVORING THE N/NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE POPS BY
LATE AFTN ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE. POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
HAVE GENLY BEEN CAPPED AT 20-30% OR LOWER...DUE TO WEAKER LIFT
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDS. LIKE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT SO SEVERE WX IS UNLIKELY. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO OVER NW 1/3 OF THE CWA
DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO THE 1.25" TO 1.50" RANGE. FOR TEMPS...LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
FAVORING WHAT HAD BEEN THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN EXPECTATION OF A
SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WEST OF THE BAY...TO
THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA TONIGHT. WEAK SFC
RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR A DRY
OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THU...LITTLE TRIGGER FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER, EXPECT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING ESP
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER
SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN A MINIMAL 20% CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM IN
THE SOUTH MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S NE (60S AT OCEAN CITY) AND
ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 70S/LWR 80S INLAND.

STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE FL
COAST. WEAK FLOW/UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE COAST FRI/SAT
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST...SLOW MOVEMENT AS THE LOW BECOMES
STACKED WITH HEIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z/6 MODELS ARE INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW IN GENERAL TRACK...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED OFF
THE SC COAST 12Z/FRI AND MOVING VERY LITTLE TO A POSITION ALONG
THE SC/SE NC COAST AS OF 12Z/SAT. FOR AKQ CWA...WE LOOK TO BE ON
NRN FRINGE...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST
LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA FRI/SAT. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL KEEPING THEM
IN THE CHC RANGE...TO 30-50% OVER INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE
NC...TAPERED TO 20% OR LESS OVER THE N/NE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S WELL INLAND BOTH DAYS.
LOWS GET A TAD WARMER AS DEW PTS RISE...PRIMARILY 60-65 F
(ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S STILL POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE LOW WEAKENING AND
GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA CST BY MON/ MON NGT
INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE 20%-50%
POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT THRU
MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA. THEN...HAVE
30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE KEPT
DONW TO SOME EXTENT DUE TO THE FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS AND E/SE
FLOW OFF WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY COOL. HIGHS GENLY AVG INTO
THE LWR 80S INLAND TO 75-80 F NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES PROVIDE
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CIRRUS FROM LOW OFF THE FL COAST.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND COULD SLIDE EAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RIC IS THE MOST FAVOR LOCATION FOR CONVECTION...BUT
WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT ANYTHING THAT FORMS QUICKLY
WEAKENS...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STORMS WITH
JUST A 20 - 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP FALLING. THIS MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING
SOME MID DECK CLOUDS FROM RIC-SBY.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION IS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST SO OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING
CIRRUS...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE WINDS ARE
TURNING SOME E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVE INTO VA AND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH STRENGTHENS. SO THE FLOW WILL BECOME E - NE BUT ANY CEILINGS
SHOULD BE VFR.

LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE COMING
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE
VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGING WWD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAS LOCATED
OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS
SW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. BACKDOOR
FRONT SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15
KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NELY AOB 10 KT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS THURS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW
OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SC COAST
FRIDAY...TRACKING INLAND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 3-4 FT FRI...REMAINING 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS AOB 15 KT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...SAM



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