Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



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