Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251933
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT... THEN CLOUDIER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ADVANCES TOWARD OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO
OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOTS OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCT CU OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS... AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK BUT APPEARS TO BE ERODING AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. EXPECT ANY CU TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS OVER PA CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH... SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S AT
MANY LOCATIONS... WITH LOWER TO MID 30S IN NORMALLY WARMER
URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SC CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER QUEBEC SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW YORK AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STARTS
TO BE PULLED WESTWARD. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE DEEP LAYER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY... BUT WITH MORE
CLOUDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50 IN MOST PLACES.

THE UPPER LOW BACKS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOIST ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES
CONTINUE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LOW LIKELY FOR ALL
AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TYPICAL SPRING PTRN IN THE LONG TERM WITH SLOW MVG CLSD LOWS AS
THE NRN STREAM JET CONTS TO TRANSITION FROM WINTER TO SUMMER.
SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE LONG
TERM DESPITE A GNRL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WV PTRN. BOTH TRY TO BLD
AN UPR RDG FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SE US CST NEXT WEEK. BIGGEST
DFRNC IS THAT THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP A DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THAT OCNLY SPINS SOME WET WX THRU THE FCST AREA. EURO IS
DRIER AND KEEPS CLSD LOWS MVG INDEPENDENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WITHOUT DVLPS A LONG WV TROF. BELIEVE THE EURO MAKES MORE SENSE
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE GFS TENDENCY TO BLD DRAMTIC TROFS.

SO...FOR THE PD GNRLY KEPT DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WX...WITH JUST SOME
LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE AT TIMES...ESP NEAR THE END OF THE PD.
TEMPS WILL CONT A BIT BLO NRML IN THE NLY FLOW...BUT HIER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD. NARROW AREA OF CLRG OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR A CHG WITH LGT NW WIND. MODELS SHOW THIS CONTG THRU THE
NGT TIME HRS AS A LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. ON SUNDAY...NLY FLOW
AND A WEAK WV WILL LIKELY BRING A SC DECK BACK TO THE FCST AREA
ARND MID MRNG...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...AT LEAST
THRU 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...PSBL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DUE TO THE COOL NLY FLOW.

TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM


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