Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 251438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW
RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. SHERBROOKE QUEBEC (CYSC) REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS PAST
HOUR. FORECAST IN GENERALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR
CHANGES MADE...AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM LOW
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN MAINE AT THIS TIME

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NE CONUS IS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE FEB...THAN LATE APRIL WITH
CRNT TEMP ATOP WHITEFACE OF 18F AND WIND CHILL OF-3F. WATER VAPOR
CONTS TO SHOW A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL
MAINE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN VT
ATTM...WITH NEWPORT SHOWING SFC OBS AT 1 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VT AND NEW
YORK MTNS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ALL IS COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS. THIS
INCLUDED ADJUSTING SKY COVER TO MATCH IR TRENDS AND DROP TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON CRNT HRLY OBS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

FCST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. CRNT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOW DEEP
CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN ME...WITH NUMEROUS
SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBONS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. NEXT 5H VORT AND MOISTURE IS CRNTLY
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WL DIVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY/VT
TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST BTV4KM
AND NAM12 SHOW BEST 1000 TO 700MB RH AND OMEGA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE NEK...ALONG WITH THE
GREATEST QPF FIELDS. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM MT
MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...CHC IN THE NEK...AND SCHC ELSEWHERE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WL START AROUND 500 FEET THIS
MORNING...BUT QUICKLY JUMP TO 2800 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS LLVL
WARMING OCCURS. QPF WL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY <0.10 WITH SNOWFALL BTWN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO
ABOVE 2500 FEET. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ONLY
A FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER
VALLEY. WL MENTION HIGHS 35 TO 40 MTNS TO 45 TO 50F CPV/SLV...AND
MID 50S VSF. IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WL
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW
WARMING TREND...AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION SLOWLY FILLS AND WAA
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD. PROGGED
85H TEMPS WARM FROM -9C TODAY...TO -2C BY 18Z SUNDAY...WHICH
SUPPORTS U30S TO MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK WEAKER ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO ANTICIPATE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. WILL MENTION CHC POPS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES AND SCHC
ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT < 0.05...WITH ONLY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SUMMITS. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
LIFT OCCURS ON MONDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND MENTION
LIKELY POPS NORTHERN MNTS WITH CHC POPS IN THE VALLEY. QPF WL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 0C...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH
WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MIXING. WL MENTION HIGHS L/M
40S MTNS TO M/U 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE
WARMER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. LOWS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW
COOLER READINGS IN THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 611 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW
LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS VT/NY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TUE/WED WITH MUCH NEEDED DRYING AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

DESPITE THIS BRIEF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LARGE TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION
AMONG THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
THE GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENETERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...ANY
COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.

THIS WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE WED NGT/THU THRU
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME BUT DOESNT APPEAR AS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS
THIS PAST WEEK AND TEMPS COOLING FROM MID WEEK HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD
AS RECENT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW


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