Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 020431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1231 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...NEAR TERM...ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS TO KEEP THINGS
CURRENT. THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ABOUT 6 HRS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP AND WX GRIDS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED SKYCON TO SUPPORT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY WITH OVER RUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE USED THE GFS FOR POPS... SKY
AND QPF. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM
THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON THE GFS USING SNOW/RAIN CUT OFF TEMPERATURE
OF 34. WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE. THE
MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERRUNNING EXPECTED TOMORROW NGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVERY LOCALE TO
SEE SOME FORM OF PCPN DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS. MED RANGE MODELS
SEEM TO AGREE ON INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN ARND 00Z IN THE FORM OF -RA
ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE L/M 30S AT THE ONSET.

AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS OVRNGT EXPECT RAIN LINE TO SPREAD NORTH
DRG THE OVRNGT HRS. ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHC OF FRZG RAIN THRU
BULK OF THE OVRNGT. ONLY QUESTION WL CENTER ARND HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT WL THIS HV ON TRAVEL WITH STRONG SUN LKLY HEATING UP
PAVEMENT ENUF TO PREVENT ACCUMULATING ICE DRG THE OVRNGT
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT STRONG WAA. HV SIDED
MORE TWD COLDER SOLN OF GFS/EC AND CMC WITH CLDR H8 TEMPS THRU 06Z
FRIDAY AS NAM SEEMS TO BE WAY TOO WARM.

AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON EXPECT ALL PCPN TO SWITCH OVR TO RAIN BY
DAYBREAK WITH FROPA ESSENTIALLY ON DOORSTEP OF CWA WITH CHC POPS
EXPECTED ACROSS DOWNEAST DRG THE MORNING HRS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW BFR SWITCHING TO RAIN, MAINLY ACRS NRN
AREAS WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. WITH SUCH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY JUST AHD OF CDFNT EXPECT
MAXES TO REACH INTO THE LWR 50S BY 18Z BFR DROPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM IN A NEVER-ENDING STRING OF SYSTEMS WL BEGIN TO
IMPACT AREA AS TROF IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE ON WEST COAST.
TROF WL LKLY DVLP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS FRI MRNG AND THEN HEAD UP
TWD NEW ENGLAND IN SW FLOW. BREAK IN THE WX IS EXPECTED VRY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM BFR NEXT BATCH OF PCPN HEADS IN. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW OVR THE FAR NORTH
UNTIL LATE SAT AFTN BFR COLD AIR IS DRAWN IN ACRS SRN AREAS.
LATEST MODELS HV A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS TO LOW TRACK, VIRTUALLY
ALONG COAST PER EC TO JUST OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA PER CMC. THE
TRACK OF LOW WL DETERMINE WHAT AREA IN CWA WL LKLY SEE HEAVIEST
PCPN THO FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IT WL BE A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM AS UPR LVL WAVE RMNS OPEN AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
FROM THE WEST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR THUR NGT IN -RA FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
SN/PL/FZRA AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AT THE SAME TIME, BECOMING VFR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RA/SN MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT OFF SHORE
WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT. WAVES THURSDAY WILL BE COMBINATION
OF SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AND INCOMING LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS THUR NIGHT WITH SEAS 5-8 FEET
AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS THRU FRI MRNG. GALE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE SAT AFTN INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2015 WAS THE 4TH COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND
THE 11TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. FOR A COMPLETE REVIEW OF MARCH 2015
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST NEWS HEADLINES ON OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...CB/NORTON/FARRAR
MARINE...CB/NORTON/FARRAR
CLIMATE...


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