Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 210348
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
THE STEADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.

CONVECTION IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT TOPS HAVE
COME DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT AND THE MAIN THREAT NOW WILL
BE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

DID BUMP UP POPS INTO THE WEE HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR WHICH SHOW MORE SHOWERS GATHERING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

SFC COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE PA/OHIO BORDER AND WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. THE COOLER MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CREATE PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES...WHILE MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SE.

WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20KT
RANGE LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY SEEING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA
OVER THE NW INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES W/ISOLATED SHRA ALONG AND JUST TO THE SE OF
THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE FAR
SE ZONES.

MAXES TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 50F IN THE NW AND PERHAPS THE
LAURELS AS WELL. THE LOWER SUSQ WILL PROBABLY REACH THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIOD. AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS OUT BY TUESDAY
MORNING THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL
BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT
LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD
LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP
MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD DROP
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD DROP EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TO THE NW TO THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF PA. THE
MODELS ARE BECOMING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...HOWEVER
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY SPINNING OVER QUEBEC.WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH IT POSSIBLY
RETROGRADING AND SWINGING ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ASIDE FROM BRIEF IFR VIS IN +TSRA INVOF MDT/LNS THRU 06Z...EXPECT
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SFC
WNDS FROM 250 TO 300 DEGREES WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25-30KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH PREDOMINATELY SCT TO BKN MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PERSISTENT NW FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR MVFR CIGS OVER
THE NW AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING IN ZNY DOMAIN. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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