Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 062313
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RUN FROM NEAR
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND COLDWATER AND EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE INTO
THE EVENING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL
RUN FROM ST. JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
TORNADOES. A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR TORNADOES ARE THE LACK OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEY MAY NOT LAST
VERY LONG AS THE STORM COLLAPSES ON ITSELF DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER WINDS. THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
AFTER 7 TO 8 PM. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND LOW TO MID 50S TO THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS IN COLORADO. GOOD MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALSO. THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY,
HOWEVER WITH CAPES FORECAST AROUND 2000 J/KG, SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH
OF HAYS TO GARDEN CITY AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
TO EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY, THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND EVEN INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. SEVERE STORM
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND
AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, SOME
SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAYBE TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG
WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

EVENING CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST/NORTH OF GCK
AND HYS. EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. 50 KNOT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER SUNSET AROUND 2000 FT AGL LEVEL WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. BUFR
SOUNDING INDICATING LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SO SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  58  75 /  20  40  60  50
GCK  53  79  55  70 /  20  30  40  40
EHA  51  79  52  73 /  10  30  30  30
LBL  54  81  57  76 /  10  40  50  40
HYS  58  78  54  69 /  40  40  70  50
P28  64  80  61  80 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT



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