Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
236 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
AND ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE OVER THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS
WITH EVEN SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RUN AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A
REBOUND EXPECTED GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH
OF AN IMPACT AFTER SUNDAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SIMILAR
SOLUTION WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT SUNDAY WITH GFS FURTHEST NORTH. TONIGHT EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE GILA REGION...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL
COUPLED SO SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN LAST
NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BE REDEVELOPING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AS IT DOES...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE INTENSIFYING ALONG
ERN NM/TX BORDER. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA WITH ADVISORY SPEEDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LOOKING AT THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND MODEL BIASES...THINK THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAR NORTH WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW. SHOULD SEE PRECIP SPREADING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS
MOVING THROUGH. MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET IN
THE GILA REGION.  THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH STRONG WEST WINDS DO NOT USUALLY PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT...A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...BUT PARTICULARLY THINK SACS
HAVE BEST SHOT FROM THIS TIME ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR 2 OF
SNOW AROUND CLOUDCROFT BY MON MORNING. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL ROUND THE LOW DURING THE DAY MON AND KEEP SOME POPS
GOING...AGAIN MAINLY MOUNTAIN ZONES. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO WED WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI
INTO SAT. PREVIOUS MODELS OF THE GFS KEPT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER RIDGE WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT LATEST
RUN HAS BACKED OFF AND ECMWF IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z...
ALL TAF SITES SKC-SCT250 WITH WINDS 25020-25G35KT THRU 06Z. AFT
06Z IN NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA SKIES SCT-BKN060-080 WITH ISOLD
-SHRA BKN040-050 THRU 15Z...THEN NUMEROUS SHRA OR TSRA BKN030-040 IN
GILA REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 16Z TO 25025-30G35KT. IN
SOUTHERN PORTION OF AREA AFT 06Z SKIES SCT080-090 WITH ISOLD TO SCT
-TSRA BKN040-060...WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AROUND 16Z TO
28030G40KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE WITH WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO
35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
IN THE LOWLANDS. IN THE GILA WILDERNESS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT THE AREA. TUESDAY TRIALING
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  71  52  74  48 /   0  20   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           51  70  46  69  43 /   0  10   0  10   0
LAS CRUCES              50  69  43  72  42 /   0  30  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  67  43  69  42 /   0  40  20  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              36  41  31  48  30 /   0  60  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  63  46  67  42 /   0  40  20  20  10
SILVER CITY             44  55  37  65  40 /  10  60  20  30  10
DEMING                  47  67  41  74  42 /   0  30  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               46  65  39  73  42 /   0  40  10  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  70  51  73  49 /   0  20   0  10   0
DELL CITY               47  71  46  71  43 /   0  10   0  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            52  74  49  75  46 /   0  10   0  10   0
LOMA LINDA              52  65  45  67  43 /   0  20   0  10   0
FABENS                  54  72  47  73  45 /   0  20   0  10   0
SANTA TERESA            52  69  46  73  44 /   0  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  68  48  70  46 /   0  30  10  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  67  38  71  38 /   0  30  10  10   0
HATCH                   48  67  42  72  42 /   0  30  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                52  68  47  74  46 /   0  30   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  67  45  69  44 /   0  30  10  20   0
MAYHILL                 42  53  40  50  33 /   0  40  30  40  20
MESCALERO               38  51  36  52  32 /   0  60  40  40  20
TIMBERON                41  53  35  55  34 /   0  60  40  30  20
WINSTON                 41  56  42  63  34 /   0  60  20  30  20
HILLSBORO               45  60  41  68  39 /   0  40  20  20  10
SPACEPORT               43  65  41  69  38 /   0  30  20  20  10
LAKE ROBERTS            39  53  36  62  37 /  10  70  20  30  20
HURLEY                  46  58  37  68  39 /   0  60  20  20  10
CLIFF                   45  62  36  73  40 /  10  70  20  30  10
MULE CREEK              40  58  34  70  35 /  30  80  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 46  59  39  67  40 /   0  40  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  47  67  42  73  44 /   0  30   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  68  40  74  42 /   0  30   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  68  41  74  42 /   0  30   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  64  41  71  42 /   0  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

26/28





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.