Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 180314
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1014 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO END THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS...AND RE-TREND FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. WHILE POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND CONVECTION TRENDING
DOWN...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL 1 AM FOR
THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE STORMS FLARE UP IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR...TEXAS TECH WRF...AN OLDER NSSL WRF
RUN...AND WV/IR SATELLITE TRENDS...WE HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 8 HOURS. THE BULK LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION...AS ALREADY SEEN ACROSS CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO. WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS BY 10-11Z...MOVE ACROSS AND BRING POPS TO THE BULK OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 12-18Z...THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...THEN MOVING EAST AND AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THIS EVOLUTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT
IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND
INITIAL ELEVATED STORMS...BUT LATER STORMS IN THE DAY COULD
CERTAINLY BE SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND
PROPAGATION SPEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  65  79  63  87 /  70  30  40  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  64  79  61  87 /  70  30  40  30  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  65  79  61  87 /  70  30  40  30  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  62  78  59  86 /  70  30  40  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  65  83  59  89 /  50  40  20  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  64  78  62  86 /  70  30  40  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  64  80  61  87 /  70  30  40  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        80  64  78  61  86 /  70  30  40  30  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   80  66  78  63  85 /  70  30  50  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  66  80  63  87 /  70  30  40  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  66  80  63  86 /  70  30  40  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
LAVACA...LEE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



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