Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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