Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 040433
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING SO FAR...WITH VERY LITTLE CEILINGS TO
CONTEND WITH. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE HAVE PRODUCED
A CIRRUS SHEILD WHICH IS GIVING MANY LOCATIONS VFR CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO THE 5-15 MPH RANGE.

MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE RETURN...OR NOT...OF THE STRATUS DECK.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON T14HE TIMING OF THE STRATUS...AS THE LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE YET TO SHOW THEIR HAND. CEILINGS ONLY DROP TO AROUND
4K FEET WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...SO HAVE DELAYED THE
STRATUS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WACO AND METROPLEX TAF SITES.
WHATEVER STRATUS APPEARS IN THE MORNING HOURS...SHOULD LINGER FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF. THAT SHOULD LEAVE MOST OF THE DAY
WITH VFR CEILINGS...IF ANY...AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
25 MPH.

FOX

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
SUNSET...A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD HELP
BRING STRATUS UP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT US TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE TOMORROW AND THE CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE ADVANCES AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT SOME 20
PERCENT POPS WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO BOWIE LINE.

AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST WITH MUCH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY MAY...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
COLORADO...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA
BY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS MAY END UP BEING 2 TO OVER
3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-35 ARE STILL IN DROUGHT AND THE LAKES ARE MUCH IN NEED
OF RAIN. SOILS ARE SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AND LAKES DO NOT NECESSARILY NEED THE RAIN. SOME FLOODING
IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. IF THE FORECAST PANS
OUT...SOME RIVER FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ON PARTS OF THE
TRINITY...SABINE AND SULPHUR RIVERS.

58

14

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  82  63  78  66 /   5   5  10  50  70
WACO, TX              63  81  63  79  67 /   5   5  10  50  60
PARIS, TX             60  80  61  79  64 /   5   5  10  40  50
DENTON, TX            62  81  63  77  65 /   5   5  10  50  70
MCKINNEY, TX          62  80  62  78  65 /   5   5  10  50  70
DALLAS, TX            64  83  64  78  67 /   5   5  10  50  70
TERRELL, TX           62  82  63  79  65 /   5   5  10  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         62  82  63  79  66 /   5   5  10  50  50
TEMPLE, TX            63  82  63  79  67 /   5   5  10  50  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  80  62  76  64 /   5   5  20  60  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/25


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