Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 020455
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE.

STRONG WINDS...SOMETIMES AIDED BY CONVECTION...DEVELOPED WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ISSUING A SHORT FUSED HIGH WIND
WARNING...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OF WINDS.
WILL BOLTER THE WIND FORECASTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR HIGHWAY 25. TO THE
WEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND IT
WINDS HAD TURNED TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WITH THE
INITIAL PASSAGE. FURTHER NORTH A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH NEBRASKA.

THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 283. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS TO
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
FURTHER WEST TO ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 25 STRONG STORM TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.

A SECOND AREA OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRY LINE AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LIFT
QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH...BUT THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
HAS THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/STRONGEST LIFT OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA...SO PLACED THE HIGHER CHANCES THERE.

DURING THE EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND IT RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END.
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEMS TO FILL SOME...WITH
THE BETTER LIFT MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST CAUSING CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA TO DIMINISH DESPITE THE
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH ARE
CERTAINTY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT. DUE TO THE VERY
DRY CONDITIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING DUST FOR LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAINFALL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANSITION OF
FRONT THRU THE FORECAST AREA CLEARING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT MONDAY...WITH MODELS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE FROPA SET TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SLOW
TRANSITION TO COLDER AIR EXPECTED DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO REGION FROM THE N AND W...ALONG WITH MORE OF
EAST/WEST MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE SLOW TRANSITION OF THE
COLDER AIR FROM THE N/NW...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS LIGHT
RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
MID 30S. TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL WILL NOT COINCIDE WELL WITH
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP ALONG FRONT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY SNOW ACCUM TO OCCUR MAINLY FROM THE CO/KS BORDER ON
WESTWARD. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...E/NE
OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECTING AT MOST
1-2 INCHES OF ACCUM...WITH MUCH LESS AS YOU TRAVEL EASTWARD WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
BUT GROUND TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR MUCH ACCUM.
TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR CLOSE TO 06Z FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN ENSUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA
FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER
AREA ON FRIDAY WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS
SAT/SUN/MON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS DURING THIS TIME TO RANGE IN THE
MID 60S THRU THE MID 70S...WARMEST ON MONDAY.

FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY...SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY WITH ITS PARENT LOW...SO HAVE MENTIONED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR -RW. WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES...AND LEE-
SIDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGE TO
OUR EAST... MODELS DO INDICATE A CHANCE FOR -RW TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT -TRW MENTION IN SW ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TREND DOWN FROM THE 65-72F RANGE TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR -RW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z WITH IFR/VLIFR
CIGS EXPECTED FROM 03Z-06Z. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z. AFTER 23Z EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH 15-20KTS GUSTING 25-30KTS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS QUICKLY FALL AND
RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CIGS FROM
05Z-06Z. WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 07Z GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. FROM 08Z THROUGH 23Z WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR
LESS. AFTER 00Z NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND GUST 25 TO 30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO MVFR
CATEGORY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...AT THIS TIME MOST LIKELY
AROUND 05Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL AFTER 05Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99


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