Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 070155
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX
955 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AND WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT THE FRONT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

955 PM...QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS ESTF UPDATE
INCORPORATES THE LATEST MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS AS WELL AS
SATELLITE TRENDS FOR NORTHERN CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
655 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST THE
CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
NEW DAY...SAME STORY...AS A SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS
REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE US SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW AS RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BUT WE
WILL STILL COME VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG FIRE CONDITIONS WITH VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED AND WINDS ONLY FORECASTED TO BE
SLIGHT BELOW CRITERIA. THE WEAKER GRADIENT WILL ALLOW AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES WILL PULL BACK A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES FROM THE MIDDAY HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOULD
SEE A DRY DAY AS ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS MID COAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. FARTHER WEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

WILL SEE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT A CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DAMPEN
OUT THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN MAINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 60S ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HELPING BOOST TEMPS IN SOUTHERN
MAINE ALTHOUGH MID COAST MAINE WILL STILL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF
ONSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 INN MIDCOAST AREAS.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ...STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IMPROVING
WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT
8 PM AS WINDS DIMINISH...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER AS THE WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDTY VALUES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. DECIDED
TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCLUDING ONLY SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND FUELS ARE A BIT GREENER IN THAT AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ001>006-009-010.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



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