Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 182001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS COMING TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12
MODELS...THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL THEN
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING RAINFALL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY...AFTER THE SUN IS UP AND THE FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW WILL REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...PROVIDING A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WELL INTO
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
EJECT AND DAMPEN EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THIS WAVE...AND ALSO KEEPING THE SURFACE
FEATURES MORE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER TO HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST TREND TO
BULK OF THE FORCING AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT TOO MUCH WILL BE GOING ON AT THE AIRPORTS UNTIL EARLY
TONIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF HIGH CIRRUS...WITH A FEW
CUMULUS SCUD DRIFTING PAST BENEATH...WILL BE ALL THERE IS TO SPEAK
OFF IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE FIRST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z...WHEN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 11Z...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN DRAMATICALLY DURING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



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