Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 061251
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS REMAINED BELOW AN INCH OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED AND WILL SOON MIX
OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. WINDS ONCE AGAIN ARE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO 6000
FEET...THEN ROTATE AND BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12000 FEET
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 44
KNOTS WAS AT 41000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 102 MINUTES
AS IT ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST SOUTHWEST OF WAVELAND 25 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE
OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK TROUGH AXIS LOCATED FROM DALLAS TO NEAR AUSTIN THEN BENDS
SE TOWARD VICTORIA TEXAS THEN EAST WELL OUT OVER THE GULF. THE
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH TODAY REACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES A BIT. HAVE MOVED
POP NUMBERS UP A BIT FOR THIS BUT MAY SEE 30% IN LOCATIONS NEAR
BATON ROUGE. MAY SEE A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF 20% NUMBERS AFTER
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE STRONGER TROUGH OUT WEST OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE VERY VERY
SLOWLY TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT BEST SHOT OF SH/TS. MODELS WANT TO BRING THIS FRONT
THROUGH SLOWLY. BUT THIS IS THE FRONT THAT PICKS UP THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA CLEANLY.

MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE CONTINUES BUT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
RELAX. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE GULF. STILL EXPECTING EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA IN THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO AND AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AS A POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
 SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  63  83  64 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  82  66  84  66 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  80  66  82  66 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  81  69  82  69 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  79  66  81  67 /  10  10  10   0
PQL  80  63  82  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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