Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 032219
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
319 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK
COURTESY OF A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER BEGINNING
THURSDAY MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF WELCOME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MORE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND ELKO
COUNTIES. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...WITH MOST AREAS 15 TO 25KTS. THAT IS
GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME MULTICELLUAR STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 55 MPH. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 55 MPH...DUE TO FAVORABLE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. JUST EAST INTO UTAH...ALREADY
HAD A GUST TO 57 MPH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN. COULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION TOMORROW
WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY...CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWING/STALLING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL DYNAMICS...COULD SEE SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ALONG/BEHIND THAT FRONT IN EASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET /H3 100 KT/ WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODELS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW IN FAIRLY
GOOD POSITIONAL AGREEMENT. HAVE TRENDED THE POPS UP AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA DURING THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN
ADVANCE AND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER WHITE PINE
AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NOTED WITH THE SNOW
LEVELS AS THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 6500-7500 FEET. WITH IS SYSTEM
INFLUENCING THE CWA...THE CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE COLD CORE OF THIS TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AOB NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY...AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE EVIDENT SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL HOLD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP BASICALLY ON A FROM
LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ELKO COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS
HAVE PRODUCED SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE CORES OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.EQUIPMENT...THE WINNEMUCCA ASOS IS EXPERIENCING TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ISSUES AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE ASOS IS NOT TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE INTERNET...LANDLINE COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN
OPERATIONAL. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THIS WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

94/89/89



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