Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031945
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A RETURN OF S/SWLY WINDS ACRS THE NATURAL STATE THIS AFTN HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW LVL MOISTURE TO MAKE A RETURN FM THE GULF. THIS WAS
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 50S...ALONG WITH AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE FA.

NOT TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHGS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FCST. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN SITUATED OVR THE SERN STATES...RESULTING IN A CONTD
WARM/MOIST SLY WIND FLOW ACRS THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AN UPR LVL
STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE ACRS SRN CA ON MON. THE SYS IS
PROGGED TO SLOLY TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

A SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES WL EJECT NEWD FM THE MAIN UPR LOW ON TUE
AND WED. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER LVLS OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SMALL CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVR THE WRN
PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S ARE ALWAYS
PROBLEMATIC...SO OPTED NOT TO DEVIATE FAR FM THE GOING POP FCST. MOS
TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HIGH TEMPS
BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CORNERS
OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS WILL WOBBLE AROUND THEIR RESPECTIVE AREAS WITHOUT A
LOT OF MOVEMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NO FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




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