Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
742 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 735 AM MONDAY...MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE T/TD
TRENDS. A QUASI-STATIONARY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM
WILL RESIDE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THOUGH THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PERIODS WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PWAT BELOW 0.5" BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT TO SEE SCT CU DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND
1350-1360M EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70...EXCEPT
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...EXPECT PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS A RATHER ROBUST VORT LOBE PIVOTS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH CLEARING LATE. THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. LIGHT
MIXING AND A DRY AIRMASS AT THE SFC WILL PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...NOR`EASTER TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS WITH
COMFORTABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE
LOW/MID 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING SUB-1000 MB LOW WILL
MOVE ALONG OUR COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GOOD CHANCES OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND OUTER
BANKS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE AND ATTENDANT UPPER LOW MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENT ENERGY IN THE MID-LEVELS TO STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES AND LEAD TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW FINALLY
STUBBORNLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY EDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM MONDAY...SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS BURNING OFF QUICKLY
AT PGV THIS MORNING AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN BY 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT UPPER ENERGY FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM MONDAY...DIAMOND BUOY STILL HOVERING BETWEEN 5-6 FT
THIS MORNING BUT HAVE ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SCA FOR THE SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY...THROUGH MAY BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SEABREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3-5 FT NORTH AND 2-4 FT SOUTH.

A ROBUST VORT MAX ASSOC WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET BUT CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT TO THE SOUTH. WILL LET THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE ISSUING A SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALL
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. BEST CONSENSUS IS
BRINGING THE LOW RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND LATEST MODEL WIND
FIELDS WOULD KEEP BULK OF THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
CURRENTLY HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD. DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD LEAD
TO MUCH HIGHER WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK


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