Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250455 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION... 25/06Z FORECAST CYCLE..CEILINGS AT TERMINAL SITES HAVE
LOWERED TO IFR. BUT LOW CLOUD COVER RATHER PATCHY OVER THE FLYING
AREA SO SUSPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RUMBLE INTO SE MISSISSIPPI BY
AROUND 4 A.M. AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA 6 TO 7 AM AND THEN THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /08 JW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE MORE-OR-LESS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE.

FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...WE MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR AREA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 4 OR 5 AM IN THE 30-40 KT 850 MB
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS
DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIT OF FORCING.

PARCEL BUOYANCY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY MID- TO LATE
MORNING. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON...AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TOWARD OUR REGION. WE EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO CORRESPONDINGLY
INCREASE IN THE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER KINEMATIC FIELDS SHOULD BE NORTH/EAST OF
OUR AREA...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS IN PLAY. /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW...A
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK SLOWLY TOWARD THE FCST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A WEAKENING
50H SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM (PLUS).  WHILE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW...THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WITH THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. INITIALLY
AFTER AROUND 4 AM SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY84 AND WEST OF I-
65.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BUILD EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW...BUT WILL BE
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE DAY. AS SUCH THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER 80S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT RETURNS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO
THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OPENING AND MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES
EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
/13

AVIATION...
25/00Z FORECAST CYCLE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOLVL SFC WINDS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH. 12/DS

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BY
SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  81  72  89  67 /  20  50  10  20  20
PENSACOLA   73  81  73  86  69 /  20  50  10  20  20
DESTIN      71  75  74  82  70 /  20  30  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   66  83  67  87  64 /  20  60  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  67  82  67  89  63 /  40  50  10  10  05
CAMDEN      66  82  68  87  62 /  30  60  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   67  82  68  90  66 /  20  50  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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