Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 020124
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
824 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE TN RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORMING ON AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HIGHLIGHTING DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT REMNANTS OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WARRANTING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GRIDS/ZONES
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING ALONG WITH LATEST
RADAR TRENDS/OBS. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 6MB FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

AVIATION...

VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE TOMORROW. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD RETREAT WITH
WINDS NOW SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AIR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
20`S EAST OF BNA. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS CYCLONIC. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CAPE BOTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOES HELP SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. QPF SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY,
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL. ALSO, LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW, AND EVEN MORE SO ON FRIDAY SO THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE FROPA. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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