Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190926
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.