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000
FXUS63 KPAH 100938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE UPPER LOW DEPARTING
TO OUR EAST...APPEARED TO BE OVER. TEMPS/DEW POINTS ACTUALLY ROSE
OVNGT...AND TEMPS REBOUNDED AS MANY AS 13 DEGREES FROM EARLY EVE
FIGURES. NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WILL RETURN. SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUD
COVER CONTAINING SOME FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SHOULD
GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER TODAY...AND BLUSTERY WNWRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTN. THE NAM WAS PRIMARILY
USED FOR TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FIVE PERIODS OR SO BUT THE DEWPOINTS
SEEMED A LITTLE HIGH...SO GFS MOS WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR THEM.

MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE PAH FCST AREA ON FRI...DESERVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

COLD NWRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEPER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SFC REFLECTION /SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA/ JUST AHEAD OF IT. STILL ATTM LESS THAN AN INCH IS
FCST IN 24 HRS. THE REST OF THE 7 DAY FCST IS DRY AND COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY 2-3KFT THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. AREA RADARS AND METARS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH MOST OF THE MVFR CLOUDS AS OF 05Z...SO
WILL MENTION PREVAILING VFR LIGHT SNOW WHEN/WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST. MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW NOTICED OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DESCEND INTO OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT 1-2KFT CEILINGS AND 6SM -SN AT KOWB AND
KEVV. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN KOWB/KEVV TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WHILE
WESTERN TAF SITES SHOULD BE CLEARING BY MIDDAY.  STRONG WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT...BUT WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
WITH SUNSET.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...DRS