Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 210838
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
638 PM CHST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE
RISEN SOMEWHAT AT THE IPAN BUOY...TO AROUND 7 FEET. DEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION AROUND 6N155E HAS MADE NO WESTWARD PROGRESS SINCE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON BRINGING DISTURBED WEATHER
CURRENTLY NORTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI INTO THE MARIANAS...AND ARE
NOW HOLDING OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE UNTIL
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WHEN THE WEAK CIRCULATION MAY BE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF GUAM. THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE CAUGHT THIS CHANGE
WELL...AND THE ONLY FURTHER CHANGE NOW IS TO PUSH BACK MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME
SAT-MON...BUT IN VIEW OF RECENT NON-DEVELOPMENTS WILL HOLD OFF ON
SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT WIND AND WAVE GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD...AND NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA
THROUGH A BROAD...WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...THEN THE
TROUGH TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD TO END NEAR EQ160E. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AROUND 10N FROM
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK TO NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. THE MODELS HAVE THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NORTH OF THE FORECAST
ZONES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...HAVE PLACED SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT POHNPEI TONIGHT AS DEEP
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR POHNPEI. A SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING
TOWARD KOSRAE. SURFACE TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE EAST
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE
THIS SHOULD AFFECT MAJURO THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER IN THE
WEEK. CONTINUED WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE ECMWF INDICATES PLEASANT WEATHER REACHES
MAJURO AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI IS MOVING WESTWARD AND CHUUK
FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING A
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD CHUUK
STATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE CIRCULATION COULD REACH YAP ABOUT FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY KOROR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA



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