Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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