Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP THU THRU SAT AS HEIGHT
FALLS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THU WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR WRN PR. POSSIBLE LULL
IN ACTIVITY FRI HOWEVER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG T-STORMS OVER SW PR.
A SECOND FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. BEST MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN PR WITH STEERING MOTION
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. 500 MB TEMPS COOL DOWN TO -11C WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. FLOODING NOT LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BUT SEVERE WX NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRI AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY UNDER
HEIGHT RISES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING THU.
T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU ESPECIALLY AT JBQ AND JMZ. INCLEMENT WX
POSSIBLE FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT AT ERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TERMIMALS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON FRI. T-STORMS LIKELY THU-SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  40  40  30  20
STT  75  83  74  82 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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