Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 042343
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE AIRMASS
HAS DESTABILIZED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP.
CAPE VALUES ARE LOW AND SHEAR IS VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT SO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. THE CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AGAIN, STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY TO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE .10 TO .20 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WILL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY BUT
COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL GENERALLY RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THRU THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED. FURTHER NORTH...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A BIT
MORE LIMITED...BUT AN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER CONCERN THOUGH FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE NEAR 30 DEGREES AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES
COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS FOR THOSE WHO HAVE SPRING TIME
VEGETATION OUTSIDE ALREADY. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW WILL MIX IN AT
TIMES...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.10 TO
0.20 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER POCKETS
OF PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2340Z.

THUNDERSTORM PRESENTLY CAUSING ERRATIC WINDS NEAR KLWT ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBZN/KHLN/KGTF. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  76  42  60 /  10  30  60  10
CTB  39  70  33  57 /  10  30  40  10
HLN  45  75  40  62 /  10  30  60  10
BZN  42  73  40  60 /  20  40  60  40
WEY  33  67  32  58 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  43  71  40  59 /  20  40  40  40
HVR  41  80  42  63 /  10  20  60  10
LWT  46  76  43  60 /  20  30  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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