Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 060445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO WESTERN AR AROUND 09Z.
EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. UPDATED ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT
MAINLY TO MAKE THE WORDING MORE RELEVANT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OK
THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST AR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MAIN
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-MASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE DRY LINE AND COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OFF THE NW PACIFIC COAST...
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS TIME
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL...INCLUDING
SEVERE WEATHER. SOILS WILL LIKELY BE SATURATED BY THIS TIME FROM
PREVIOUS RAINS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  79  67  80 /  80  60  50  40
FSM   64  80  64  83 /  40  50  10  30
MLC   67  77  67  81 /  70  60  30  30
BVO   64  78  67  82 /  80  60  50  40
FYV   62  77  62  80 /  40  60  10  30
BYV   61  78  63  81 /  30  40  10  30
MKO   64  77  64  79 /  70  60  30  30
MIO   63  76  64  79 /  70  60  20  30
F10   65  76  66  79 /  80  60  40  30
HHW   65  77  64  80 /  70  60  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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