Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 011025
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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