Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 032159
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
259 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST NORTH AND EAST OF LAS
VEGAS THIS EVENING...THEN A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS EXPECTED
MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERY AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS WERE
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...DEEP
CUMULUS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
BUBBLE UP OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SWINGS INLAND.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE SIERRA NEVADA AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE SMALLEST
CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING EXCEPT IN EXTREMELY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR IN CASES OF VERY PERSISTENT BACKBUILDING
STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TODAY TO THE EXTENDED
RANGE AS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA WITH INCREASING SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS INYO COUNTY AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH BY ABOUT 12 HOURS COMPARED YESTERDAYS
RUNS SO BEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
NOW APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST BY
SATURDAY BUT SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE COOLEST DAY (FRIDAY) POSSIBLY MORE THAN
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS
SUNDAY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
BETTER CHANCES IN ALL CORRIDORS AND NEAR THE TERMINAL ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA TO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

MORGAN/OUTLER

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