Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Guadalupe River Basin in South
Central Texas...

The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office
has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Central Texas.
AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range
probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the
Internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate
The chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels
in the next 90 days. Example: The Guadalupe River at Gonzales
has a flood stage of 31 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
the Gonzales forecast point will rise above
29.3 feet during the next 90 days.

         Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                    Valid 04/15/2015 - 07/14/2015

 Location        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------        ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Guadalupe River
 Hunt            10.0    7.7  8.6  8.8  8.9  9.2  9.4 14.4 16.3 21.0
 Comfort         21.0    3.4  4.9  6.0  6.5  9.1 13.8 15.3 17.2 25.5
 Spring Branch   30.0    2.2  4.0  4.8  6.4  7.9 11.5 12.8 14.9 32.2
 abv Comal NB     7.0    1.9  2.2  2.3  2.4  2.5  2.7  4.7  6.1  9.8
 Blw Comal NB    13.0   10.0 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 12.2 13.9 14.9 17.4
 Seguin          19.0    1.5  1.7  1.9  1.9  2.1  4.3  8.3 12.8 15.4
 Gonzales        31.0   12.7 14.4 17.4 20.4 29.3 33.5 35.0 39.3 41.9
 Cuero           24.0    9.9 12.6 16.0 20.7 24.1 26.1 31.1 35.3 37.5


Blanco River
 Wimberley       13.0    3.8  4.3  5.1  5.5  5.6  6.0  6.3  7.7 13.5


San Marcos River
 Luling          20.0    5.2  6.6  8.3  9.3 11.4 13.7 16.4 20.2 27.8


Plum Creek
 near Luling     23.0    6.5  8.6 12.5 17.2 20.0 21.7 23.1 23.8 25.0


Peach Creek
 blw Dilworth    23.0   10.8 14.6 15.8 17.9 22.2 24.2 26.1 27.5 29.1


Sandies Creek
 near Westhoff   21.0    8.2  9.9 12.0 15.5 17.4 18.6 19.8 21.8 23.6

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the
level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions
can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ewx

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.




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