Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 191024
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROSCOMMON RX...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
624 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...GUSTY EAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
MICHIGAN. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 57.
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION. GUST UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 23 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-1900 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48  56  65  74  78  80  84  89
WEATHER COV.....                SCH SCH SCH LKY
WEATHER TYPE....                RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............46  50  54  56  57  57  57  57
RH..............51  44  38  35  34  37  38  40
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......200 300 400 400 500 600 600 600

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........93  98  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............57  55  52  49  48  46  45  45  45  45  44  44
RH..............42  49  56  66  68  73  80  87  93  94  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..9   8   8   8   8   7   7   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  15  15  20  20  15  15  15

$$
FORECASTER...MONIQUE RUNYAN
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150419.ROSCO.01/APX


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