Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FNUS71 KCTP 050358
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK RUN...DCNR MOSHANNON STATE FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE BURN AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH/S WILL BE VERY LOW IN THE MORNING AND NOT
RECOVER MUCH EVEN AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. GUSTS COULD GET INTO
THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AROUND THE SHOWERS.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 1300...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5100-6000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 2800-3800 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............66  66  72  72  72  97  97  97  93  93  93  93
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................57  57  58  59  61  63  65  67  69  69  67  66
RH..................85  86  86  81  77  73  69  65  62  62  64  67
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.0 5.9 5.1 3.8 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  9   9   9   10  13  13  10  7   5
LAL.................3   2   1   1   1   1   2   4   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2300...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 8 TO 16
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............93  93  99  99  99  99  99  99  95  95  95  95
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................65  64  63  62  59  58  56  55  54  52  51  50
RH..................69  72  77  79  86  91  93  97  100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   13  16  15  12  9   8   9   9   10  10  12
LAL.................5   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-4600 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............95  95  87  87  87  87  87  87  85  85  85  85
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48  51  54  55  56  58  59  60  61  62  64  65
RH..................100 100 72  70  68  67  65  63  62  59  57  55
20 FT WIND DIR......N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  12  12  12  12  9   7   5   3   3   3
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/DANGELO
REQUESTED BY...LORI MCMAHON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.ROCKR.01/CTP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.