Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 012011
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARCLAW FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1453 CDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALONG WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS...RELATIVE HUMDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY
AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

.THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75.
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 3-4 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 5-7 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND 11 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 22 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 61.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST 3-4 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 5-7 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 11 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 11 TO 12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 63 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST 2-4 MPH WITH GUSTS 6-8 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (8169 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...GOSSELIN
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG GILBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150401.BEARC.01/LSX






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