Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 011700
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR HAMPTON 903...USFWS, CRAB ORCHARD NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 01.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
TODAY...THEN AREA WIDE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. A COMBINED TOTAL OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND THIS EVENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................36 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2700-3400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........11  10  10  11  13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............72  73  73  74  74
RH..............36  31  30  29  30
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..12  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND EARLY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-1300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 32
                    TO 36 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........16     26     40     53     62     69
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
TEMP............74     70     66     64     63     61
RH..............33     41     48     58     65     75
20 FT WIND......SE 10  SE 9   SE 8   S 9    S 9    S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      3      3      3      4

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75.
RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 59 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 31 TO 37 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........73     79     85     90     91     90
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP............60     61     66     70     73     75
RH..............87     93     84     73     66     62
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 13   S 15   S 16   SW 16  SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     25     25     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...TREVINO
REQUESTED BY...DAVID JONES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150401.HAMPT.01/PAH



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