Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 261814
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...VALID 18Z SUN APR 26 2015 - 00Z TUE APR 28 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW CAO 10 ENE RTN 30 SW PUB COS 40 W SPD 20 WSW EHA
15 SW LBL 20 SE AVK 15 N CQB MLC 15 NNE PRX 10 NE 4F4 20 NNE GGG
15 NNE IER 15 SE IER 25 NW POE 35 N JAS 15 SW OCH 35 NNE LHB
10 WSW GRK 20 N 6R9 20 NNW BWD 45 W RPH 65 SW F05 35 S CDS
40 NE PVW 30 WSW CAO.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW KXIH 20 WSW GLS 35 NNE GLS 20 SSW DRI 15 WSW ACP
30 ESE ACP 10 SSW BTR 25 WSW HDC 15 SW HSA 30 SSE HSA 25 SE NBG
GAO 20 SW P92 25 SE KXIH 25 SW KXIH.


...SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS..UPR TX COAST AND SRN LA...

....MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS EXPECTED FOR SW/SCNTL OK WITH
SLIGHT RISK FROM SE CO INTO MUCH OF WRN CNTL OK...THE TX
HANHANDLE..NRN/NE TX INTO WRN LA AS WELL AS FROM THE TX UPR COAST
INTO SRN LA...

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO
PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF SRN CO ROCKIES
INTO MUCH OF CNTL/WRN OK...CNTL/NE TX...AND PARTS OF SRN LA IN
RESPONSE TO DVLPG CLOSED LOW MOVING EWD FROM AZ/NM REGION INTO THE
SRN PLAINS.  THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION SUN NIGHT AS STGR JET WINDS REDEVELOP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPR LOW.  STG EXIT REGION/DIFFLUENT UPR JET WILL HELP
TO INCREASE BROAD SCALE ASCENT TO THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF DVLP
85H/7H CIRC CENTER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PD.
 THIS STG ASCENT COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF HIER MSTR WITH PLUME OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH PWS BEING
DRAWN INTO AND N OF E/W FRONT ALONG WITH STG CAPE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO MON.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW
OK WOULD BE IN THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIER PW
AXIS..ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GENL DURATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. AREAL AVG AMOUNTS HERE ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE ACRS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SW/SRN OK WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
AMOUNTS PSBL.  IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT..ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE MORE SUPER-CELL TYPE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
ASSOCD DRY LINE THROUGH CNTL TX BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST INTO PSBL MCS IN DIFFLUENT
REGION BETWEEN POLAR AND STGR SUBTROPICAL JET ACRS SRN TX.  WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACRS ERN TX INTO
WRN LA ...THE STG DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG NARROW PLUME OF 1.5 INCH
PLUS PWS COULD LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL
ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES THRU EARLY MON...WITH SOME SHORT TERM RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR TWO.   WITH DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING PATRN HELPING TO HOLD HEIGHTS DOWN ACRS THE ERN U.S. AND
DRIER AIR EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES...EXPECT THE STGR STORMS ON
MONDAY TO GENLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CNTL GULF COAST REGION TOWARD
DEEP LAYERED E/W AXIS OF SUBTROP MSTR ALONG THE NRN GULF OF MEX.
ANY LINGERING MCS MON MRNG MAY CONTINUE TO FEED OFF OF MODEST SW
85H FLOW INFLOW AND POOLING OF NEAR 2 INCH PWS ACRS SW LA AND THE
UPR TX COAST AND DVLP EWD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
AFTN...SUPPORTING THE POTNL FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS AND PSBL
EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT ACRS SRN LA.

SULLIVAN

$$




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