Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 061858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 07/0000 UTC THRU MAY 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
DRY-LINE CONVECTIVE EVENT. THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE DRY-LINE EVENT
VARIES IN THE MODELS...WPC FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z RGEM
AND WRF-ARW...THOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DISPARITY IN TERMS OF BOTH
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS AMONG THE OTHER MODELS. STILL ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE AFTER INITIATING ALONG THE
DRY-LINE AND NEAR THE CAPROCK IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY SUCH
CONVECTION COULD ROLL OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAIN
BOTH IN TX AND OK OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...HOWEVER...WITH THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT (LLJ FOCUS) SHIFTED WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE RESULTANT UPTICK IN 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN DOWNWIND PROPAGATION. THIS
ALONG WITH THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF
BOTH AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN...AND AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRYING (FFG VALUES RECOVERING A BIT)...ANTICIPATE THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WPC AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN .50 AND 1.5" OVER A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX OVER THE RED RIVER AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.


...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN / CENTRAL PLAINS...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO ROLL THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN INTO WESTERN IA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS OPENS AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PASS THROUGH NE COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY
INFLOW. A GROWING NUMBER OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/RGEM ALL SHOW A HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
EASTERN NE. USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WPC NOTED
AREAL-AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO
EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA...THOUGH PER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE 4KM RGEM...NAM CONEST...WRF-ARW...AND
NSSL-WRF)...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED.


THERE IS ALSO A REASONABLY STRONG...ALTHOUGH MORE NARROW...QPF
SIGNAL IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (THROUGH THIS
EVENING) WHERE AN INVERTED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP AND
INTERCEPT INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY IN THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TODAY. IN FACT...THE 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH PREDICTED
THERE WOULD BE RECORDS FOR THE DATE PER THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT-RANGE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMPARED TO WHEN THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME PASSED THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOTED.


...NEVADA / UTAH...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVER NORTHERN NV AND WESTERN UT AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DIGS TOWARD
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (CAPE VALUES
UP TO 400-800 J/KG) TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY 0.50-.075 INCH AT MOST.
STILL...THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD PROMOTE SOME PERIODS OF
TRAINING TO BOOST RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR 1.00 INCH OR GREATER EVENT TOTALS.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 561903 561872 560857 559850 557843 550819 547815 542813
      535810 527817 524820 523826 520836 518847 517853 515857
      511856 505856 496857 493859 489863 486871 486884 486891
      484893 482893 475889 467885 454885 449884 446886 442889
      437889 430893 426895 420895 416897 410897 404898 400900
      392905 388906 385911 380918 377926 364935 359940 353947
      334946 327947 322949 312953 299964 295981 297984 296986
      290987 286989 282993 282999 283002 287010 290013 294015
      298015 302017 304026 307028 311027 315023 318018 320014
      322013 322017 325021 329022 339026 344028 346030 351031
      355030 359029 363027 368026 372028 375030 378035 377041
      374044 371048 367051 363053 361056 368056 372056 375058
      379060 380063 378064 372063 367063 367066 369068 373072
      372075 374081 377085 379084 382083 384086 387089 393089
      397094 396106 390112 387114 384114 382113 380114 379119
      380124 384127 392124 396123 399124 399127 395135 389140
      384147 379153 360187 365192 368196 371200 377206 384210
      390212 394211 398213 401216 405216 408213 410210 410206
      405203 407190 412183 417177 426175 429173 431171 431168
      430163 427158 425154 425146 429143 432143 432147 433153
      434158 437162 440164 447161 448165 450170 454176 459174
      461166 471148 474139 475133 474128 471119 471112 470106
      470103 468101 464098 462094 459086 456076 452068 443066
      436060 434054 434047 430044 426045 424050 421050 419048
      412040 407035 403028 397022 390019 387016 385011 385005
      386999 393999 396001 406005 411007 414010 416015 417022
      420030 426036 434043 444046 448048 452050 461050 471052
      482052 489049 495045 508036 514030 517028 520022 526010
      530999 532994 536990 542983 552970 555966 556960 557953
      557944 558937 559929 559925 558919 558914 559908 561903
 0.01 519183 518179 515175 512172 507171 502170 497168 494168
      495174 498176 503177 508179 511181 514185 518185 519183
 0.01 519170 520159 518153 514149 510145 505142 500142 499147
      501149 504153 509157 511163 515169 519170
 0.01 501214 500209 498205 495202 491198 487198 485199 477202
      473202 470204 464210 463214 466217 470218 473215 482214
      484212 489211 497216 501214
 0.01 451220 451217 447215 444214 439214 434218 429220 426219
      424221 421221 421225 425227 430225 436223 440222 446222
      451220
 0.01 456847 456842 454837 450833 447833 442834 440837 438842
      440846 444847 448848 453850 455850 456847
 0.01 435842 431835 426831 420829 415823 408824 406829 410836
      416840 421844 428848 431847 434845 435842
 0.01 420202 419201 418201 416201 414202 412201 410201 410202
      412204 412205 414204 415204 417204 418204 419202 420202
 0.01 404780 404774 402768 399765 395762 392761 386762 383765
      380769 375778 371787 368797 367803 364807 355824 353828
      349831 349836 352840 355839 360835 363833 362838 364841
      368838 370834 372828 382812 389806 391802 394798 401792
      403788 404781 404780
 0.01 373213 371212 370210 366208 365206 362204 360203 359206
      361207 362209 365211 367213 369215 371215 373213
 0.01 357723 356716 355709 352704 348701 342694 337693 330694
      320695 310700 302706 294713 286718 277724 272732 269736
      270744 272748 274754 273760 268765 260769 254771 250767
      246766 243769 237778 235800 238826 240831 243835 246837
      253837 257834 257829 259824 261823 265822 267818 266812
      265807 267802 270798 276797 283796 288798 294797 299799
      307805 315807 322806 327803 334797 340788 344780 348769
      350758 351744 357723
 0.01 346180 346176 345173 344170 343167 341166 338165 337167
      336172 336174 339177 340179 341182 344182 346180
 0.25 554881 553871 552857 549845 548841 544837 541837 538840
      535849 534862 533865 531865 527867 520870 516875 510882
      505890 498904 492909 487917 482922 476925 466925 461926
      455927 448928 442925 429916 421914 417915 412917 400927
      396934 395940 396945 400946 400950 394950 390952 385956
      381963 377972 375981 392991 452978 460978 463976 467976
      472981 472986 470991 461004 458006 455009 452013 449015
      437022 436028 438031 442033 447034 454034 462035 472034
      481032 493028 501024 506019 516005 520999 524989 531973
      534963 536957 538955 546941 549931 552918 553909 553899
      554881
 0.25 459133 460126 458121 457116 456108 443094 440086 438080
      436074 427070 423061 418054 414051 410054 403050 399048
      396045 393041 391043 392050 394055 407068 410077 410091
      410097 407102 406108 406112 408113 412111 414115 416121
      415125 412127 399138 396140 394144 394151 396152 395156
      391159 382163 379167 379169 383172 389175 407170 418154
      420141 425131 432126 436130 437132 436136 436139 437146
      439149 443147 447144 451144 453142 459133
 0.25 407145 407144 405143 404143 402144 400146 399148 399149
      401148 403148 405147 405146 407145 407145
 0.25 390204 388199 385196 381193 378190 375187 371184 369185
      369187 371190 374193 377197 380200 383203 389204 390204
 0.25 384779 383778 381779 381780 380782 381784 383782 383781
      384779
 0.25 380787 381784 379782 378785 378786 377787 378788 380787
      380787
 0.25 344712 342708 338704 333702 328703 316707 307712 298718
      288724 285728 283734 285741 289745 297750 299756 298762
      294772 294780 296788 298792 302796 307798 312799 318799
      324797 328794 333789 339781 343770 344765 345758 345750
      344741 342734 342725 344715 344712
 0.25 359967 359963 357960 354958 350957 342956 336957 329960
      321961 317961 314964 314973 312978 312983 310991 311996
      315999 319000 323999 328001 330002 330008 329013 332016
      341015 346011 351004 354998 357989 358980 357975 359969
      359967
 0.50 548914 549907 549900 545889 541881 537881 532881 528882
      525885 521895 515900 511908 507915 504919 504924 505929
      505937 506948 504952 502955 497964 495967 493973 494977
      492982 482995 470006 467014 458017 452020 451023 452025
      457026 465026 474023 481020 490018 496015 503010 506003
      512996 517989 521979 523970 526959 530951 536944 541938
      545928 547920 548914
 0.50 486944 487941 486937 482936 479939 477942 472944 471947
      468947 467952 469956 472954 476951 479949 484947 486944
 0.50 449966 447957 443950 439945 433940 428937 424936 421938
      414942 409947 402960 395975 393984 394989 398990 410984
      422976 429973 436972 443974 448969 449966
 0.50 438110 437105 436098 435092 433090 430086 425085 423087
      424091 426096 426101 423104 423108 426112 431113 436112
      438110
 0.50 415076 416073 415071 415069 416066 417064 417062 417059
      416059 415057 414056 413057 411058 410059 410061 410063
      411063 411066 412068 412069 413071 413073 413074 414076
      415076 415076
 0.50 386200 385200 385198 384197 382197 381196 380197 381197
      382198 384200 385200 386200
 0.50 352978 351972 348968 339963 335962 330963 319965 316970
      316977 316985 317992 320995 326995 332996 335000 336006
      340006 346998 350987 352978
 0.50 341762 340747 338734 337719 335713 332709 328707 324708
      319709 314712 299722 292729 291733 293738 300742 304745
      307750 307756 305762 301770 300775 299780 300786 302790
      309795 315796 321794 328789 334782 339773 341763 341762
 1.00 427947 423946 419947 412953 407960 402967 398975 396979
      396985 400987 403984 408980 416974 421968 424964 426959
      426952 427947
 1.00 338762 332746 331735 330724 326717 323715 319717 313721
      312724 313730 317735 319746 319757 317764 310776 307782
      306787 309790 317791 324788 329783 334776 337770 338762
 1.00 337986 338980 337976 335971 332969 326969 323969 321973
      321979 321984 324988 328989 330988 335989 337986
 1.50 416963 416958 412959 409963 406966 403969 401972 399977
      398982 400980 402982 405977 408975 411973 414968 416964
      416963
 1.50 334765 334761 331759 328757 326759 323767 320772 315777
      311784 311786 314787 320786 326781 330776 334769 334765
 1.50 324730 324728 322727 322728 324730 324730
 1.50 332978 332976 332975 330975 328975 327977 327980 328981
      330981 331980 332978 332978

$$





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