Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N13W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N21W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-42W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR INTO BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N TO COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 7W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 00N29W TO 2N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA ACROSS THE E GULF
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA/E YUCATAN CHANNEL SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO
25N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 88W-
92W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 86W
TO OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE NW ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS AND COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT SMOKE COVERS MOST OF THE SW GULF WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
N/CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT NW OF THE AREA TUE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA/E YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N80W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA
NEAR 22N83W ALONG 21N85W TO 17N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN
77W-85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS
BETWEEN 84W-87W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
INCREASE TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT COVERING MOST OF THE ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON HAITI. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON THU BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR LAST PART OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N46W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NW TO 32N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W
OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM 25N69W 23N72W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN
74W-77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200
NM NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 70W. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING ALONG 28N53W TO
25N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC N AND W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH ABOUT 400 NM OFF THE MARYLAND COAST. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N13W TO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N12W OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 26N22W TO 24N29W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
23N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 24N47W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT AND TUE INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT AND SHIFT N OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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