Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



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