Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 031012
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
UPPER TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PACIFIC MOISTURE UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS CO. APPEARS TO BE A WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE 4 CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FOR THE SW MTS THIS MORNING.  AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS CO TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FAIRLY EARLY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WHICH DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...SFC LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WILL HELP ERODE MOISTURE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE HIGH BASED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.  HOWEVER A FRONT DROPS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.  HIGHEST CAPE...UP TO
800 J/KG WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS (KIOWA
COUNTY)...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AS WELL AS
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...BUT SHEAR LOOKS A TAD WEAKER SO
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER TODAY.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN
SCARS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 11-11.5KFT TODAY.  THREAT
LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR THE WALDO TODAY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONT
...THOUGH STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AS HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS
DROP SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.  IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHEN A LITTLE BETTER CAPE MAY BE
IN PLACE.  BOTTOM LINE...WHILE THREAT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING...IT
DOESN`T LOOK TERRIBLY HIGH TODAY.

FRONT MAKES A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING...AS MCS DEVELOPS OVER EC/NE CO. DEW POINTS INCREASE BACK
INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
CO...AND WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION.  SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS...NAM12...NSSL WRF SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL.  ONCE
AGAIN...WALDO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...THOUGH MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE THAT RAINFALL RATES WON`T BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN A HIGH THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TOWARDS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY END UP FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN EARLY ONSET TO CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MODELS STILL INDICATE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A GOOD DOSE OF
MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SWEEP THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON MONDAY...THEN ACROSS COLORADO ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND OPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE STATE. THROUGHOUT THIS PATH...A
HEALTHY MOISTURE FEED OUT OF THE SW IS EVIDENT AS IT STREAMS ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO COLORADO. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO FIRE
ACROSS THE MTS MON MORNING...THEN THE WETTEST TIME PERIOD STRETCHES
FROM MON AFTN THROUGH THE DAY TUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MODELS ARE
PAINTING UP TO .75 INCHES OF WATER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.
THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN THE E PLAINS LATE SUN/EARLY MON
SWINGS SFC WINDS AROUND INITIALLY TO A NE DIRECTION...THEN BY MON
AFTN LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW SETTLES IN WHICH WILL AID IN NEARLY
CONTINUOUS RAIN FOR THE PLAINS AND E MTS THROUGH TUE. LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MON AND TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 F. DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER BY MIDDAY
WED IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS AND EC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE STATE LATE WED...THEN
DROPPING ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THU AND FRI...THEN EJECT TO THE NE
ACROSS ID AND MT ON SAT. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE E PLAINS WILL MOST LIKELY GET DRY-
SLOTTED WITH THIS PATH...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 F.
STAY TUNED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KALS AND KCOS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF VCTS AT THE TERMINAL. LOCAL ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 45 KTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
VFR CIGS AND -SHRA POSSIBLE. THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW AT KPUB TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. A FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT PROVIDING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NORTH WINDS 15- 25 KTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AFTER
06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS THE PLAINS...WITH PIKES PEAK REGION SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE. FOR NOW...ANY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK FAIRLY LOCALIZED. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.