Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 042057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
257 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

WV SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE UPR LOW OVR AZ...WITH
AMPLE MSTR STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  SFC OBS INDICATE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.   THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS BY 15Z TUE...AND THEN CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL CO BY 00Z WED.  SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVR THE SERN PLAINS
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT.  THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.

ACTIVITY MAY WANE FOR A TIME BY LATE EVENING BUT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
EJECTING OFF THE UPR LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THRU THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN ALONG WITH SOME
ISOLD TSTMS.

THE NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHWARD OVR ERN CO
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WL ALSO HELP
ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES OVR ERN AREAS. PCPN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY HIGH
OVR MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TUE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME DRIER CONDITIONS OVR SRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS BY
MIDAFTERNOON AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.  SPC
HAS MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
TUE AFTERNOON AS CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1000 J/KG TO ABOUT
1800 J/KG OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT THAT
HIGH...ONLY AROUND 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH MTNS AREAS...MAINLY ABOVE
11000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...AND IF ONE OF THESE STORMS MOVES OVER A
BURN SCAR...IT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 11 KFT WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE A MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CLEARING THE EASTERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
EXPECT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW TO SPARK
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO. ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WILL HELP LEAD TO DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE...AND THEN MOVE OFF INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH...ABOVE 11 KFT...AND A COUPLE OF INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA PEAKS EACH DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING THE UPPER
SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE
TRACKING THE SYSTEM RIGHT ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME...WHICH
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT DOES PRODUCE DECENT
RAINFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD...WITH STORM TRACKS TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH...AND A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO
MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THERE WOULD ALSO BE A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALL OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM TRACK AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY...WITH TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DRIER WEATHER.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE TUE MORNING THRU TUE AFTERNOON. IN
GENERAL...KPUB AND KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOWERS OR
TSTM COULD AT TIMES BRING CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING KPUB COULD HAVE CIGS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. KCOS WILL SEE CIGS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AT TIMES
THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT KCOS WL
LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AND THIS WL
LIKELY BE THE CASE THRU TUE MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



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