Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING ANOTHER MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING THE MAIN WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS...THE EASTERN I-70
CORRIDOR AND INTO CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA...BENT AND EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO INDICATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE SPILLING INTO TELLER AND EL
PASO COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
PASSING SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
TO DEVELOP OVER  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT UP ON MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL SEE WRAP AROUND RAIN
SHIELD MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PIKES PEAK
REGION AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING
GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING TO ALSO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

NORTHERN ROCKIES PASSING WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS COULD
REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN LOOK TO BE
LIGHT AND SPOTTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

 AN UPR LEVEL WX DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE
MTNS WL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.  TEMPS ON MON ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVR THE SERN PLAINS
AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  PCPN CHANCES MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUE MORNING.

ON TUE AND UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN CA...WITH SOME WEAK
UPR RIDGING OVR THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPR LOW OVR THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD.  MSTR REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
OVR AND NR THE MTNS. HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE.

WED AN UPR TROF WL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE SERN PLAINS IS FORECAST
TO BRING LOW LEVEL MSTR INTO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN
THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF COMING UP FROM THE
SW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL BE A LITTLE BETTER ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR AND CAPE
VALUES...WITH SHEAR VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KTS.

UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NRN BAJA CA ON THU WITH MSTR WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW WL
REMAIN OVR ERN CO ON THU.  OVERALL PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY
HIGH OVR THE MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

AFTER THU...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THAT UPR LOW. THE
ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL CO THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY.  THE GFS ALSO LIFTS THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD...BUT MORE
SLOWLY AND REACHING CENTRAL CO BY 00Z SAT. EITHER WAY IT RESULTS IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WE THEN SEE SOME RIDGING OVR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT AS A NEW UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MSTR AHEAD OF THAT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 25-35 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FOR MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB...AND DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT OVER THE PALMER DVD...RAMPART RANGE AND
IN THE VCNTY KCOS...PRODUCING INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOORE



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