Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 262143
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SPRING STORM SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
DISTINCT CIRCULATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF ABQ AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
ECHOES FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
A SPOTTER JUST NORTHWEST OF CANON CITY REPORTING 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
THUS FAR. WALDO CANYON RAIN GAGE HAS REPORTED 1.2 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH AOB 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SFC OBS
AND WEBCAMS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET AND
STARTING TO STICK TO GRASSY AREAS...THOUGH ROADWAYS STILL LOOKING
WET.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING THE BEST UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH TRAINING STORMS AND ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH SNOW ALREADY
FALLING IN TELLER COUNTY...BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND 6K FEET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRITSO AND WET MOUNTAINS AND
FOR PIKES PEAK...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 9 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS....WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AN EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ROADS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WET.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
HEAVY AND WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR A PATCHY FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH...AND
START OF THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN
UNTIL MAY 1ST. BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NOSES OVER CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY CUTS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SENDS A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH IT.  AGAIN...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AT THIS
POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE KPUB AND
KCOS TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVING TREND TOWARDS MORNING.  EAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS.  PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ALL RAIN AT KCOS
AND KPUB. CHANCES FOR VCTS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS...BUT
IFR VIS UNDER THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR THEN VFR CATEGORIES MONDAY MORNING.

KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  CIGS/VIS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW TOWARDS MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE COMING TO AN
END AROUND THAT TIME...SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY SNOW
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN IMPROVING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. -KT
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-
066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ072-074-079.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ078-081.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ076.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW


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