Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301518
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
918 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAX CAN BE SEEN
IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN
CO THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT
SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS
MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME
PROGS ARE INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE
AROUND MINUS TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE
INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



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